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03/10/2010 - Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chauncey Billups delivered 25 points to lead Denver in a 110-102 final over Minnesota at the Target Center.
Carmelo Anthony recorded 19 points, six rebounds and five assists for the Nuggets, who won their fourth straight game to kick off a four-game road trip.
Nene came up with 17 points and nine boards, J.R. Smith added 15 points and Chris Andersen stepped up with a double-double of 14 points and 10 rebounds.
Corey Brewer paced a down-and-out Timberwolves squad with 21 points. Al Jefferson posted 17 points and 10 rebounds, and Kevin Love added 15 and 11.
Minnesota is riding a seven-game losing streak overall and has lost seven straight at home as well.
<< Road warriors: Grizzlies run road streak to seven with rout in Boston
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rudy Gay led a potent Memphis attack with 28
points, as the Grizzlies' ran their road winning streak to seven games with a
convincing 111-91 win over the Celtics.
O.J. Mayo notched 17 points, and Marcus Wil
<< Jazz continue mastery of Pistons
Auburn Hills, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Deron Williams paced a balanced attack
with 18 points and 12 assists, and the Utah Jazz trounced the Detroit Pistons,
115-104, at the Palace at Auburn Hills.
Mehmet Okur and Paul Millsap each added 18
<< Devils double up Rangers
Newark, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Devils captain Jamie Langenbrunner was one of
six different goal-scorers, as New Jersey doubled up the New York Rangers,
6-3, at Prudential Center.
Langenbrunner, Brian Rolston, Travis Zajac and Rob Niede
<< Fleischmann, Capitals edge Hurricanes in overtime
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tomas Fleischmann scored with 1:40
remaining in overtime to lift the Washington Capitals to a 4-3 victory over
the Carolina Hurricanes at Verizon Center.
In the extra session, Fleischmann hamme
Wade, Heat rout Clippers >>
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dwyane Wade poured in 27 points, dished out eight
assists, and pulled down six rebounds, as the Miami Heat led wire-to-wire in a
108-97 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers.
Jermaine O'Neal donated 19 points and
Ginobili helps Spurs hold off Knicks >>
San Antonio, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manu Ginobili poured in a game-best 28
points to go with six rebounds and five assists, as the San Antonio Spurs used
a late surge to hold off the New York Knicks, 97-87.
Tim Duncan added 18 points an
Mavericks down Nets for 13th straight victory >>
Dallas, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Kidd racked up 20 points and nine assists,
as the Dallas Mavericks extended their winning streak with a 96-87 victory
over the New Jersey Nets at the American Airlines Center.
Caron Butler added 18
Raptors-Kings, Box >>
TORONTO (90)Turkoglu 2-8 2-2 6, Bosh 6-20 2-3 14, Bargnani 8-12 3-4 20, Jack 6-12 0-0 14, DeRozan 5-10 4-4 14, Wright 0-4 0-0 0, Johnson 1-2 2-2 4, Calderon 4-8 1-2 10, R.Evans 2-2 0-0 4, Weems 2-3 0-0 4, Belinelli 0-1 0-0 0. Totals 36-82 14-17 9
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Mayweather picked to beat De La Hoya
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA -- Golden Boy Oscar De La Hoya and his rival Floyd Mayweather Jr. arrived at the MGM Grand here Wednesday amid the pomp and pandemonium befitting two of the biggest stars in the sport who are about to duke it out for the WBC super welterweight crown this Saturday (Sunday in Manila).
As of Wednesday, MySportsbook.com closed its book with Mayweather a favorite to defeat De La Hoya at -170 (a $100 bet wins $70), while De La Hoya is a +140 underdog (a $100 bet wins $140).
Mayweather arrived at about 11:30 a.m. on a big truck with his face and a big "World's Best Pound-for-Pound" sign scribbled across the vehicle. He was accompanied by his entourage made up of rappers and his training team.
A crowd of close to 3,000 eager fans packed the MGM Grand lobby, with their cameras in tow, all trying to vie for position to get a good angle at Mayweather, who is acknowledged as the world's best fighter pound-for-pound.
Eric Gomez, Golden Boy Promotions vice-president, described the fan turnout as "amazing" and swore he had never seen anything quite like this event.
"The crowd was fantastic. Everybody was just too eager to see the two fighters," said ALA manager Michael Aldeguer, who was among those who waited at the lobby together with his ward Rey "Boom Boom" Bautista and AJ Banal.
De La Hoya made his own grand entrance at the hotel lobby at around 12:30 p.m. accompanied by GBP chief executive officer Richard Schaefer and trainer Freddie Roach.
The same group of fans who trooped to see Mayweather also lingered around to get a close look at De La Hoya, who has been secretly working out at a Las Vegas gym for days after arriving from his main training camp in Puerto Rico.
The golden boy then took part in a closed-door afternoon workout with Bautista and Banal. The two, along with Aldeguer and wife Christine, as well as an HBO crew were the only ones allowed inside the gym.
De La Hoya and Mayweather take part in today's final press conference before the official weigh-in this Friday.
Ring Magazine, the acknowledged bible of boxing, reported in its June 2007 issue that 12 out of 20 boxing experts it interviewed have favored Mayweather to defeat De la Hoya, with only 8 favoring the latter.
But Filipino ring icon Manny Pacquiao said in a recent interview with The Freeman's Emmanuel Villaruel that De La Hoya will win by unanimous decision over Mayweather.
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